Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s swing has collapsed this season, and the Toronto Blue Jays now face a brutal choice: salvage a playoff push or admit defeat. As of July 13, 2026, the team sits six games under .500 and last in the AL East, with three weeks left to decide whether to trade for reinforcements or pivot to 2027.

What’s wrong with Guerrero’s swing? Guerrero’s timing is off. Hitting coach **David Popkins** recently flagged his inability to stack on his back foot or land closed, a breakdown that’s plagued him since spring training. His chase rate—pitches he swings at—is 10% higher than last year, suggesting frustration or misjudgment. Even when locked in, he’s not spitting on pitches like he used to.

Why is this a crisis for the Blue Jays? The team’s offense is already shaky. Guerrero’s five 100-mph exit velocities in his last six games before the All-Star break were bright spots, but they’re not enough. Without his bat, Toronto’s playoff hopes hinge on bounce-backs from **Alejandro Kirk** and **Addison Barger**—unlikely fixes.

Will the Blue Jays trade Guerrero? Unlikely. The Jays have too many expensive prime players—Guerrero, **Dylan Cease**, **Kazuma Okamoto**—to rebuild. Instead, they’ll likely target a right-handed-hitting center fielder or young pitching, mirroring their 2024 deadline approach. But Guerrero’s swing must stabilize first.

What’s next for Guerrero? The July 31 trade deadline is his last chance to prove he’s back. If he doesn’t, Toronto’s 2026 season is over—and the team’s focus will shift to 2027, where Guerrero’s health becomes the only variable left.